Rookie draft picks
Every 2027 rookie pick, priced on the same 0–1,000 scale as our player values, so a pick and a player can go straight into the same trade. The early first (359.5) is worth more than the entire mid first (245.8), and nearly triple the early second.
| Pick tier | Value | ≈ Player equivalent (Superflex) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Early 1st | 359.5 | ≈ Bo Nix (QB, DEN) | |
| 2027 Mid 1st | 245.8 | ≈ Bryce Young (QB, CAR) | |
| 2027 Late 1st | 146.9 | ≈ Kyler Murray (QB, MIN) | |
| 2027 Early 2nd | 98.0 | ≈ RJ Harvey (RB, DEN) | |
| 2027 Late 2nd | 9.8 | ≈ Brenton Strange (TE, JAX) | |
| 2027 3rd | 0.0 | ≈ Shedeur Sanders (QB, CLE) | |
| 2027 4th | 0.0 | ≈ Shedeur Sanders (QB, CLE) |
7 tiers · Superflex profile · 2026-10-18
Sits between Justin Herbert (QB, LAC) (rank 23) and Bo Nix (QB, DEN) (rank 24), think a young starting quarterback or a low-end WR1. This is the pick you move only for a difference-maker.
Sits between Rashee Rice (WR, KC) (rank 34) and Bryce Young (QB, CAR) (rank 35), a mid-range starting quarterback or a high-end young running back. Enough to headline a deal for a solid starter.
Sits between Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR) (rank 67) and Kyler Murray (QB, MIN) (rank 68), a high-end WR2 or flex starter. The classic sweetener that turns a fair offer into an accepted one.
Sits between Quinshon Judkins (RB, CLE) (rank 81) and RJ Harvey (RB, DEN) (rank 82), a promising young player or depth starter. Buys a useful piece, not a centerpiece.
Roughly Brenton Strange (TE, JAX), the rank-151 player, deep-bench territory. A lottery ticket you throw in to close a gap.
Essentially zero in the model, Shedeur Sanders (QB, CLE) is the nearest player at 0.3. Pure dart throw; include it for goodwill, not value.
Zero. The nearest player, Shedeur Sanders (QB, CLE), is valued at 0.3. It costs you nothing to add and gains you nothing to demand.
Rookie picks are lottery tickets, so we price them like one. Each tier's value is the expected championship equity of the rookie outcome distribution: we take the historical range of what that draft slot has produced (from instant stars to total busts), weight each outcome by its probability, and convert the result into title equity the same way we value veterans.
Two adjustments keep the numbers honest. First, time discounting: a 2027 pick doesn't help you for a full season, so its expected production is discounted for the wait, the same discounting we apply to future years of every player's projection. Second, picks are profile-agnostic: a rookie's landing spot and position are unknown, so every tier carries the same value across 1QB, Superflex, and TE Premium.
The steep drop from the early first (354.4) to the late second (42.1) is what the hit rates say. Early picks produce starters far more often; by the third round the expected return rounds to zero.
Our measured tiers are early, mid, and late, but your league's picks have exact slots. Set the slider to the original team's projected finish and we interpolate between the three measured tiers. Interpolated estimate: the value never exceeds the Early tier or falls below the Late tier for that round. Third-rounders and beyond sit near zero in the model, so they get no slider. That's what the data says.
Trading up or down within the 2027 draft? Pick both sides and see the gap, plus the closest-valued assets that would close it.
You don't own "a first": you own a pick at somebody's finish. List the picks you hold and set each one's original team projected finish. Values interpolate between our three measured tiers using the same math as the slot tool above. Interpolated estimate: a pick's price here never exceeds its Early tier or falls below its Late tier.