https://dynastyformula.com/ Site updates and new features from DynastyFormula.com — dynasty rankings and a trade calculator with computed, backtested values. en-us Sun, 18 Oct 2026 14:35:00 -0400 https://dynastyformula.com/methodology.html https://dynastyformula.com/methodology.html#adp-hybrid Sun, 18 Oct 2026 17:35:00 -0400 Rankings are now an ADP-anchored hybrid. Non-quarterbacks start from preseason market ADP (DraftSharks dynasty ADP), because across 2018–2023 the market priced non-QB career arcs better than our model did — ADP won 53% of disagreements vs our 35% for ages 25–30, and 63% vs 25% for ages 21–24. Quarterbacks get our model's corrections wherever it disagrees with ADP by 12+ spots: our DCF won 63.2% of those QB disagreements historically. Bridge quarterbacks get a situation-aware haircut, not just an age penalty — a 33-year-old fringe starter whose team holds a top-10 pick and already rosters a young quarterback is priced at a ~15% chance of starting next year. ADP is only the preseason starting point: every week the in-season engine blends in actual production, and by mid-season the board is driven by what players have done. Track record: 64.0% vs 31.5% across 111 QB disagreements (2018–2023). The earlier 54.7% career-DCF figure is retracted as a standalone claim — the model it described is no longer the published board. https://dynastyformula.com/methodology.html https://dynastyformula.com/methodology.html#career-dcf Sun, 18 Oct 2026 14:35:00 -0400 Values are now computed on discounted projected career points instead of a fixed 3-year window. Every player gets a projected remaining career from historical survival data (longer for high producers), year-by-year scoring with position-specific age curves, and a 12%/yr discount rate fit from walk-forward backtests. Young producers with long careers rise; short-window veterans fall. Also in this refresh: week-6 data on a repaired pipeline (Denzel Boston's 5 games now count), stark small-sample discounts measured against possible games, 1QB quarterback deflation, and two new value profiles (Superflex+TEP, 1QB+TEP). The published track record has since been re-scored under the hybrid model (111 QB disagreements, 64.0% vs 31.5%) — see the changelog entry above. The 54.7% career-DCF figure is retracted as a standalone claim. https://dynastyformula.com/versus.html https://dynastyformula.com/versus.html#multi Sun, 18 Oct 2026 07:29:00 -0400 Head to Head now takes three or four assets (?a=&b=&c=&d=): the model ranks them by value with each underdog's gap to the leader, one-click "Grade vs #1" trade links, and offer-builder buttons (players and 2027 picks both work; zero-value assets are left out honestly). The Trade Diary gains a Win-now / Neutral / Rebuild re-grade window — flip it and every graded trade re-prices with the calculator's exact timeline math, the saved snapshot and season-story export staying raw. The diary also exports/imports JSON, so your trades move between devices by hand. https://dynastyformula.com/calculator.html https://dynastyformula.com/calculator.html#windows Sun, 18 Oct 2026 07:01:34 -0400 The trade calculator now shows every verdict in all three timeline windows side by side — win-now, neutral, and rebuild grades for the same trade, so you can see exactly how a contender and a rebuilder price the same deal differently. The Trade Diary's re-grade tells you what moved the grade (per-asset then-vs-now deltas, e.g. "Puka Nacua +88"), and each saved trade takes an optional league/partner label. Head-to-Head matchups can be saved as shareable PNG cards. https://dynastyformula.com/picks.html https://dynastyformula.com/picks.html#inventory Sun, 18 Oct 2026 06:31:00 -0400 Price YOUR picks, not just the tiers: the rookie picks page gains a pick-inventory pricer — list each 2027 pick you hold, set its original team's projected finish, and get an interpolated value per pick plus an inventory total (saved in your browser, with a one-click "grade a trade with these picks" calculator link). The offer builder now accepts roster share links (?r=), reads saved rosters from the Roster Checkup, and honors the ?w= window param; the checkup adds a "Build offers from this roster" button. The trade calculator shows the finish-dependent value range on every pick chip; the cheat sheet gains position tabs; the mock draft room tracks your best haul per slot on this device; Ask's solo value cards name your startup pick equivalent. https://dynastyformula.com/ask.html https://dynastyformula.com/ask.html#followups Sun, 18 Oct 2026 05:39:00 -0400 Ask the Model goes conversational: refine any reading in place ("add a 2027 2nd to my side", "swap Gibbs for Barkley", "make it two firsts", "what if ..."), ask what a single player or pick is worth ("What is Puka Nacua worth?" — value, nearest pick equivalent, closest 1-for-1 comp), get routed to the player page on buy/sell questions, and save readings straight to the Trade Diary. The trade calculator gains a "paste a trade" box that fills the slip from text ("I give Puka, I get Bijan"). The roster checkup gets shareable links (?r=) and named browser-only saves. The Blind Showdown adds Sharp mode (8–25 gaps) and a position filter; the cheat sheet adds a 100/150/200 row selector. https://dynastyformula.com/versus.html https://dynastyformula.com/versus.html Sun, 18 Oct 2026 04:36:00 -0400 Head to Head settles the classic arguments — Bijan vs Gibbs, Puka vs Ja'Marr — with the model's values, the gap, a grade, and the win-now/rebuild timeline view of the margin. The Mock Draft Room lets you draft a startup against seeded AI opponents on the Superflex board and grades your haul against slot equity (same seed, same draft — share the link). Value badges give any player a shareable SVG or PNG badge for forums. Also new: a search box on the 404 page, a random-player button on the rankings, one-click Markdown copies of the disagreement board, gap-explainer lines on the Daily Deal reveal, and a copy-summary button on the roster checkup. https://dynastyformula.com/ask.html https://dynastyformula.com/ask.html Sun, 18 Oct 2026 03:36:00 -0400 Ask the Model is a new page that reads trade questions typed like a text to your league ("Is Puka Nacua worth two firsts?") — it parses players and 2027 pick tiers, shows exactly how it read the deal, and hands it to the calculator for a grade. Also new: Blind Showdown runs are now seeded, so the "can you beat me?" share link replays the same 10 pairs; a Your-defaults card on the hub remembers your scoring profile, timeline window, and league size across the calculator, builder, roster checkup, and cheat sheet; the offer builder shows a fairness thermometer on every package; the beginner's guide has a five-question "Should you rebuild?" quiz; and there's a public changelog page. https://dynastyformula.com/roster.html https://dynastyformula.com/roster.html Sun, 18 Oct 2026 02:36:00 -0400 The Roster Checkup grades every position group on your dynasty roster against every possible room in the 878-player pool, reads your roster's value-weighted age (win-now / rebuild / in-between), and flags your biggest need with links to fix it. Also new: grade your startup draft against your slot's equity on the startup board, a 30-second first-visit tour on the trade calculator, a ?target= deep link into the offer builder (the disagreement board links it for players the model still prices), a ?pos= filter link for disagreements, and a grade-this-pair link on every Blind Showdown reveal. https://dynastyformula.com/injuries.html https://dynastyformula.com/injuries.html Sun, 18 Oct 2026 01:58:00 -0400 The Injury Watchlist lists every hurt player on our 878-man board — IR, Out, Questionable, PUP — with what the model still says each one is worth, including a pick-tier equivalent for every asset. No buy/sell calls: a snapshot, not advice. Also new: "3 Myths About Trade Calculators" (fairness is a band, fair isn't equal, opinions don't publish their misses), a sortable Superflex-premium column on the rankings, and the track record's five biggest hits. https://dynastyformula.com/search.html https://dynastyformula.com/search.html Sun, 18 Oct 2026 01:28:00 -0400 Three new pages. Site Search finds all 878 players (deep-linked to their pages) plus every tool and guide in one box, with / to focus and a ?q= deep link. The printable cheat sheet lays out the top 200, tiered with the rankings' exact tier rule, for 1QB/Superflex/TE Premium — print it on draft morning. The Blind Player Showdown hides the names: position and age only, 10 rounds, score out of 10 against the model's 0–1,000 scale, best score kept in your browser. https://dynastyformula.com/diary.html https://dynastyformula.com/diary.html#season-story Sun, 18 Oct 2026 00:35:00 -0400 Five small upgrades. The Trade Diary can now export your season as a shareable recap: edge then vs now, aging counts, biggest edge, biggest mover, trade by trade — computed from your saved trades in this browser, nothing uploaded. The startup page has a slot planner (pick your snake slot and league size, see your picks' player matches, slot equity, and biggest tier break). The Daily Deal has a 7-day archive — every past deal is replayable with the answer shown. The calculator accepts a ?w= window deep link, and the rankings page copies its top-24 as a Reddit-ready Markdown table. https://dynastyformula.com/daily.html https://dynastyformula.com/daily.html Sat, 17 Oct 2026 23:38:00 -0400 Two new retention tools. The Daily Deal is one dynasty trade a day — grade it blind (Team A wins, fair deal, Team B wins), then see what the model says and keep your streak; everyone grades the same date-seeded deal. The Trade Diary saves the trades you grade from the calculator and re-grades them later against fresh values, so you can see how your old trades aged. https://dynastyformula.com/builder.html https://dynastyformula.com/builder.html Sat, 17 Oct 2026 23:00:00 -0400 Name your target, add your roster — the builder checks every 1-to-4-asset package your roster can make (up to 27,405 combinations) and returns the cheapest ones that land within your fairness band. Win-now and Rebuild timeline views included, one-click deep links into the trade calculator. https://dynastyformula.com/glossary.html https://dynastyformula.com/glossary.html Sat, 17 Oct 2026 22:02:00 -0400 New reference page: 27 dynasty fantasy football terms explained in plain English — superflex, TE premium, taxi squad, the stud premium, championship equity, rookie pick tiers, and more. https://dynastyformula.com/calculator.html https://dynastyformula.com/calculator.html#timeline-view Sat, 17 Oct 2026 22:00:00 -0400 The calculator now grades every trade three ways: Neutral, Win-now, and Rebuild. The timeline view re-weights the same model values for your championship window — no competitor grades timeline-aware. It is not a second model and does not change rankings. https://dynastyformula.com/picks.html https://dynastyformula.com/picks.html#slot-interpolator Sat, 17 Oct 2026 21:58:00 -0400 Two new interactive tools on the rookie pick values page: drag a slider to a pick's projected finish (1–12) to interpolate between the measured early/mid/late tiers, and a pick-swap helper that prices trading up or down with the closest assets to close the gap. https://dynastyformula.com/methodology.html https://dynastyformula.com/methodology.html#changelog-v4 Sun, 18 Oct 2026 00:00:00 -0400 New: a disagreement board with the 16 biggest historical model-vs-market gaps (auto-generated, never stale), value-landscape visualizations, forum/BBCode trade-grade export, and an honest invite-request page. Pick, startup, and hub tables are now generated from values JSON. https://dynastyformula.com/methodology.html https://dynastyformula.com/methodology.html#changelog-v10 Sat, 17 Oct 2026 12:00:00 -0400 The v10 TRUE formula was promoted after blind testing (MAE 6.37, zero misses beyond ±100 across 198 trials). The trade calculator grades every deal with it. https://dynastyformula.com/track_record.html https://dynastyformula.com/#redesign Sat, 17 Oct 2026 12:00:00 -0400 Site redesign in the editorial premium direction, plus new pages: blind taste test, honest comparison page, rookie pick values, startup draft board, and per-player pages for all 878 players. https://dynastyformula.com/ https://dynastyformula.com/#launch Sat, 17 Oct 2026 10:00:00 -0400 Launch: dynasty rankings and a trade calculator where every value comes from a backtested projection model — with the full track record published, misses included.